ICYMI.ddb, In Case You Missed It — August 4, 2017

In Case You Missed It — July 28, 2017

Dear friends,

Calling turning points can be a fool’s game. But there is something to be said for the deathly quiet we’ve seen in the jobs market. Jobless claims volatility is at a postwar low even as companies have begun to cite cost cutting as the major driver behind job cut announcements. Is that ‘something’ finally about to give in this recovery that has left so many behind?

I’d love your feedback on my latest Bloomberg Prophets column, linked here:

Bloomberg Prophets — Like Markets, Jobs Are Due for a Jolt
Volatility for labor has reached its lowest in postwar history. What’s next?

I was also in New York ever so briefly as it was the day Fed officials met. Janet Yellen et al took the opportunity of a lame duck meeting to toughen up their language on Quantitative Tightening despite there being np press conference to explain themselves.

Will the Fed begin to shrink its mammoth balance sheet as early as September? Will the opposite of Quantitative Easing have no effect at all on markets? We will all tune in to FedSpeak in the weeks and months to come. The debate will no doubt continue to rage on.

You may be asking why I included a Bill Gross segment. As I was informed shortly after I left the set, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan gave self-deprecation new meaning when he claimed he was not as smart as me. I can assure you after many interviews sitting to his left, Brian is one smart cookie and a might bit smarter than yours truly.

A Few TV Stops in New York on Fed Day

Expert: Fed Fires ‘Shot Across the Bow’ on Balance Sheet Reduction
CNBC The Fed — Danielle DiMartino Booth

No One Knows How the Markets Will React to the Federal Reserve’s ‘Quantitative Tightening’
The Street — Danielle DiMartino Booth

Fed is Shifting its Focus to Balance Sheet Reduction instead of Interest Rates
CNBC The Fed — Bill Gross

On a personal note, I am delighted so many of you have subscribed. Next Wednesday marks the onset of a new journey and I am gratified to have you along. Bottoms up, friends and new subscribers! I raise my glass to you!

If you have not yet subscribed, please email subscription@dimartinobooth.com and type ‘Subscribe’ in the title line.

This weekend and next, wishing you well,

 

Danielle

ICYMI.ddb, In Case You Missed It — August 4, 2017

In Case You Missed It — May 12, 2017

Dear friends,

There are some predictions you just don’t want to come to fruition. As bad as things have been for retail, they just seem to be getting worse. It’s beginning to look as if the operating environment will assist in expediting the ripping-off-the-bandaid solution to what ails retail, that is resolving the overcapacity scourge that’s become the new retail reality, seemingly overnight.

If you’re into connecting the dots for fun during trading days that seem to stretch into an infinite sea of complacent calm, consider the value of the land under the malls that won’t be with us in the near future. These malls of our collective past may today be rendered irrelavent, labeled as they are ‘B’ and ‘C’ properties. But many are in pristine locations.

Viewed through this cold prism, you’ve got to give credit where it’s due.  Gleaning value via preemptive store closers salvages what little there is to be had from the wreckage. This will work for those nimble first movers.

In such fluid environments, though, wrinkles set in fast. Enter auto dealers, who are also waking to the reality of requiring smaller physical footprints to maximize profitability. (Yes, Virginia, you can shop for a car on the World Wide Web.) The question is, what happens when shrinking dealers’ real estate listings collide with the supply of primo real estate coming onto the market via mall razings?

The short answer is anyone who tells you they know the end result is lying. We are sailing into uncharted waters as Columbus did way back when. Oh, and by the way, concluding the exercise of connecting of dots requires you incorporate oncoming record supplies of multifamily and lodging properties. Starting to get the fuzzy picture?

For more on the potential for the retail meltdown to converge with peak autos, please enjoy my latest weekly Bloomberg Prophets column:  Car Sales Will Be Key to Job Creation — The renewal of the auto industry has been a major driver of economic growth in recent years.

If that’s not uplifting enough and you’re hankering to hear how I really feel about the latest economic developments and where my former employer, the Federal Reserve, fits into the equation, please listen to to a recent interview with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox:

Signing off from Norfolk, VA where business has carried me and I’m happy to report, crabs are in season.

Danielle


Click Here to buy Fed Up:  An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.

Amazon.com | Barnes & Noble.com | Indie Bound.com   |   Books•A•Million

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In Case You Missed It — March 24, 2017

Dear friends,

To say that we live in a brave new world, at least as it pertains to the media, is an understatement. Forget TV and radio as the sole conduits. Since Fed Up’s release five weeks ago, which spans approximately a dog year, I’ve done countless podcasts, Skype radio and video interviews, and Sirius radio stations. I’ve been on channels I’ve never heard of with such deep followings I clearly need to get out more.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s been plenty of traditional live TV and radio interviews. We can just no longer say that’s the norm.

I’ve also written. A lot. And that’s in addition to my weekly, which still stimulates my mind as no other intellectual outlet can.

Manners dictate that I not bombard your inbox every time I opine, in the written word or otherwise. But given the never-ending wrangling to which we are now subjected when our TVs are unmuted, I thought I would share two opinion pieces and one podcast released this week that remind us it is essential to look forward. We can only hope a spirit of compromise prevails giving our leadership in D.C. license to propel the country and economy into forward motion. The Bloomberg piece shot to the top of the most read list so clearly hit nerves. Let’s get going America! (In my humble opinion).

You will see the links to all three below my signature line. Have a great weekend.

Best,

Danielle

It’s Stand and Deliver Time for Trump and Congress on Deregulation — CNBC

Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore — Bloomberg

Nine Years Later…All Fed Up — The Bell by Adam Johnson and Tom Essaye Podcast

 

Bloomberg: Heed the Fed’s Balance Sheet Banter

Heed the Fed's Balance Sheet Banter, DiMartino Booth, Money Strong, Fed Up

Dear friends,

How is it exactly that we’ve journeyed from Uber-Doveville to life on Tightening Row? My answer is, “You tell me.” In the space of one election, Fed officials have metamorphosed from crying for fiscal stimulus to opining that the economy doesn’t really need all that much help after all from fiscal authorities.

The outlook has, in fact, improved so much that the unheard of, the sacrosanct, is now reasonable. Yes, if you have to ask, I speak of the precious balance sheet that was protected as is it were the very Ark itself. It, too, now is fair game to shrink.

If it looks like double tightening and sounds like double tightening, well then, by golly that’s what it is. The economic recovery is now so durable it can not only handle rising interest rates but an absent Fed in the Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in which it’s been ever present since the zero bound was hit back in 2008.

Yes, it is time to pinch yourself or ask if politics is so blatant as to be conspicuous in its very presence. For an explanation of this cryptic concoction, please read an opinion piece published yesterday.

Heed the Fed′s Balance Sheet Banter

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-23/heed-the-fed-s-balance-sheet-banter

Best,

Danielle