Happy Nonfarm Payrolls Friday from Grand Lake Stream, Maine! Grand Lake Where, you may be asking? THIS is where you fish, for small mouth bass, that is, in paradise. It’s a bit tricky to get here from Dallas, but it’s worth the trek to spend time with David Kotok, who organizes the annual campout. I also get to visit with some of the brightest minds in economics and finance I’m delighted to now call friends seven years into this annual tradition.
About those jobs…there are still plenty of them in the making. And they continue to be ho-hum in the income generation department, you know the drill – in the eating, drinking and getting sick sectors. Janet Yellen will be encouraged by the folks who’ve come off the sidelines to get the paltry paying positions. And away we go, to debate even more vigorously how the Fed’s balance sheet unwind will affect the bond market, or not.
Believe it or not, it’s not easy to get to the easternmost county in the United States. So, I made a stop in New York on the way and co-hosted a special Friends of Fermentation with my great friend, UBS’ Arthur Cashin. Friends, new and old, joined us to discuss the prospects for the market to continue moving up in 1,000-point increments and whether the Fed really will have the gumption to pull the trigger on shrinking its balance sheet (we really need to get out more and find some new materials over which to marinate ice cubes).
The consensus, if you must know, is that yes, the melt-up will continue, and that yes, the Fed seems hellbent on shrinking its mammoth balance sheet. Mind you, we also agree that the balance sheet will be blown up again in about a year’s time or so. That’s when most of us figure the economy will be in recession.
In the meantime, I’ve enjoyed writing my weekly column for Bloomberg, linked below. The editors are top notch and the readers, well – they’re well read.
I also made a brief stop at the New York Stock Exchange to chat with CNBC’S Kelly Evans and Bill Griffeth, two journalists who can always be depended on to do their homework.
Earlier in the week, I did a longer form interview on the job market, also linked below.
Signing off for now as my guide is itching to get going. The lake and fish (aka lunch) are a calling!
How could I not wish you well?